Revisiting the Forecast

It was the 9th of September when I posted my fearless forecast about the PBA Philippine Cup 2011. And we are now in the verge of finishing the eliminations with two or three games remaining for each team. According to the PBA Office, the start of the playoffs will be on December 14, 2011.

So let me revisit those forecast and evaluate it whether it happened or may not after all.

1. Talk N' Text and Petron Blaze Boosters will again advance to the semi finals and will have their "finals showdown III" to determine which of them is more superior in terms of championship run.

Yes, they are now the top 2 teams in the standings, Petron with 9-3 win-loss card while Talk N Text with 8-3 win-loss card. But Petron still have two games left (BGK and TNT), while Talk N Text will have also two games against Petron and BGK. BMEG Llamados is catching up in the standings, so if BMEG and Petron will continue to sweep their remaining games, Talk N Text might fall in the third spot if they will loss a single game.

2. Coach Tim Cone will return to the PBA. He will formalize a deal to handle the BMEG Llamados in the start of Commissioner's Cup.

Yes, he returned to the PBA too early as predicted. He was appointed as the head coach of BMEG days before the start of the Phil. Cup. He steered the Llamados on a 6 game winning streak as of this moment.

3. Alaska will face a downfall in their campaign in this conference. Coach Joel Banal won't be able to execute the triangle system effectively and might change their strategy in Commissioner's Cup.

They are in the bottom of the standings. Having a 3-9 win-loss card, they might join Shopinas in an early vacation. The team is on a slump after posting 2 consecutive wins. Even though the team is armed with a very balance line-up, but still Joel Banal won’t able to solve the right formula for the Aces this Phil. Cup.

4. Paul Lee will dominate among the 2011 Rookies in statistical points. Coach Yeng Guiao will fully utilize Lee in every games. He might be the face of the Rain or Shine Franchise.

With Chris Lutz being sideline with hamstring injury, JV Casio is still struggling to fit in the Powerade system and even Marcio Lassiter and the rest of Powerade is on the verge of facing early exit in this conference, Paul Lee might dominate the rookie scene this playoffs. Lee is 3rd in the statistical points with 14.92 points, behind Lutz’ 18 ppg and Lassiter’s 15.67 ppg.

5. Cyrus Baguio and Gabe Norwood will be traded to each other.

This trade might happen after the eliminations or before the start of the Commissioner’s Cup. Cyrus Baguio is not the Skyrus anymore after the team lost their head coach, while Gabe Norwood is playing below par of his game recently. We all know that Baguio is the “Yeng Guiao” type of a player and Norwood might be the missing piece that the Aces is looking for after the departure of Joe Devance last season.

6. Willie Miller will lead the league in statistical points.

Gary David’s 21 ppg made him the number one leader in SP’s. Willie Miller, however, is in the 15th spot with 14.55 ppg.

7. Arwind Santos will win the Best Player of the Conference Award.

As of this moment, Arwind Santos is the leading candidate for the BPOC award.

8. Joseph Yeo will be traded to Shopinas Clickers in the middle of the season for future picks.

Joseph Yeo redeemed himself when Chris Lutz was sidelined because of injury. Since the team is winning and Yeo is playing good basketball compared to his performance last season, there is no reason to trade him to Shopinas.

9. Shopinas Clickers will be the first team to be eliminated.

With a 0-12 record, coach Franz Pumaren might take an early vacation to regroup his team and find the best import available for the next conference.

10. The Final Four: Talk N Text vs. Rain or Shine, Petron Blaze Boosters vs. BMEG Llamados

If Rain or Shine will end their slump in their remaining games, the chances are high for this scenario will happen. If not, Meralco Bolts might spoil the party and it will be RSA vs MVP Final Four this conference.

11. Alex Crisano will be cut by Powerade after the elimination round.

Alex Crisano is considered as one of the energetic players in the Powerade camp, second to Mr. Pure Energy, Gary David. Crisano displayed a good behavior this conference, he might continue wearing the Tiger’s jersey this season.

12. Noli Eala and Snow Badua will end their fight, and Snow will greet Noli Eala most of the time in his TV Show.

They must settle their issues. Next…

13. Japeth Aguilar will get injured during the semi-final round because he cannot stand the banging inside the paint.

His team is already been plagued with various injuries. I hope he will be free from any injuries because Ali Peek is still recuperating from an accident.

14. Jason Castro will be the face of Talk N Text.

Yes, indeed he is. He is averaging close to 16 points per game and registered some 20 plus points in some of their games. The lone star of TNT is carrying the team and he is the biggest asset of Chot Reyes.

15. Jayjay Helterbrand will retire after the Philippine Cup.

We will see if this going to happen. However, Jayjay still got the handles and might re-consider his decision and finish the season with another championship.

The PBA Monthly Report (Winners and Losers)

It’s been one month after the season-opening of the first “pay for play” basketball league in Asia, the PBA. The ten teams already played a maximum of 5 games in the entire month and gave us shocking result in which we didn’t expected to happen. So let’s have a trip down the memory lane and decide which team performed well in this conference.

WINNERS

Barako Bull – Surprisingly, they are on the top of the standings (tied with Rain or Shine and Talk n Text with 4-1 win-loss card). Willie Miller came out strong for his team by averaging 13 points per game. The team is already known as “The Giant Killer” for beating powerhouse teams like Barangay Ginebra, Talk N Text and their latest victim, the BMEG Llamados. I admire Coach Junel Baculi because of his excellent player rotation and for injecting composure on this team. Not to mention their super rookies, Dylan Ababbou and Allein Maliksi, both late picks in the first round, averaging double figures for the team. This team believed that “age is only a
number”.

Rain or Shine Elasto Painters – The wonders of Yeng Guiao is properly working. From being a cellar-dweller team upon entering the PBA, they are now one of the deadliest team in the league. With a 4-1 record, opposing teams now is trying to figure out on how to defeat this young team composed of defense specialist Gabe Norwood, sweet-shooting Jeff Chan and the lethal Paul Lee. This trio helped the team to accomplish such feat in the early part of this conference.

Talk N Text Tropang Texters – despite playing with a depleted line up in the start of the conference (Gilas member Jimmy Alapag, Ranidel de Ocampo and Kelly Williams is out for a vacation), this team proved that they are the defending champs. With the addition of Japeth Aguilar, this team is now complete in every position. Harvey Carey and Jason Castro are playing a hell of a ball game. Chot Reyes is very serious to try another run for the grand slam this season. And once the team is complete and healthy comes play-offs, opposing teams must start thinking a way to prevent a back to back championship from happening.

Meralco Bolts – what will happen if the main core of the team is beleaguered by injuries? From the start of the conference, the Bolts are playing without their two main scorers, Sol Mercado and Mac Cardona, while Asi Taulava is tired because of the Wuhan FIBA Championship. Chico Lanete, Gabby Espinas and Mark Macapagal, shouldered the needed offense and defense for the team and that’s why they are on the second spot in the standings. With Sol Mercado back on the team and Gabby Espinas is playing an excellent game with a double-double average, this team is on a mission: to enter the play-offs.

LOSERS

Barangay Ginebra Gin Kings – coming from a two game winning streak, but those win was decided in a matter of seconds only. Against Powerade, Mark Caguioa’s shot gave their second win (73 - 72), thanks for the poor free throw shooting of the Tigers. For Shopinas.com, the team got carried away and celebrated too early, thanks to JayJay Helterbrand for the win.
Despite of their winning streak, I placed them in the losers’ column because this team needs an upgrade on their front line. This team must not rely on “miracles” or “bad game of the opposing teams” just like what happened to Powerade and Shopinas.

Petron Blaze Boosters – after a 3-0 start, here comes 0-2, two losses with a 10 point margin against Talk N Text and Meralco, both from MVP teams. We thought that this team is invincible in terms of talent and defense, but their main weakness after their last two games is the manpower. Last Friday, we’ve seen Chris Lutz and Alex Cabagnot played the entire game without rest. The team already signed their 3rd PG, Axel Doruelo, but he won’t play against Powerade because he must wait for the “go” signal from the Commissioner’s Office.

Powerade Tigers – same with Petron, from 2-0 start, they dropped their last three games. Marcio Lassiter is playing a good game in his rookie season, averaging 14.20 points per game. Gary David is still their number one option for scoring but the team needs another scorer to complement with David because Lassiter, Anthony and Kramer is focusing more on defense. JV Casio, playing with limited minutes coming from an injury, is slowly getting his game to harmonize with the team.

BMEG Llamados – After six games this conference, they found themselves at the bottom of the standings. Despite of having a great coach in the person of Tim Cone and talented composition of roster, the main problem of the team is how to absorb the triangle system. If you will able to watch their previous game, they started their game with the triangle and ends up with isolation/one-on-one game (the Ryan Gregorio system). They need to master their system or else we will see Wilfred Uytengsu with a great smile on his face.

Alaska Aces – I think this is the first time in this franchise to start a conference with a 0-5 record. They were abandoned by Tim Cone before the start of the season, and replaced by Joel Banal as head coach of the team. Jay R Reyes and Sonny Thoss are playing their best game this season (especially Jay R Reyes), but LA Tenorio and Cyrus Baguio is still “missing in action”. Why does Banal giving Brandon Cablay too much playing time when you have Eric Salamat, Julius Pasculado and Ariel Mepana on the bench? Sam Eman is a freaking bust!

Shopinas.com Clickers – this team is very promising, despite of being the new kid on the block in this league. I hope that if ever they will be eliminated early this conference, they will be able to find a very good import to reinforce them in the Commissioner’s Cup. One thing, I hope Ms. Sheila Lina will watch their game always. It is quite inspiring for the team to see her watching the team.

The Possibility of “Blaze Boosters – Tropang Texters III”

Hold it PBA fans, I know it’s very too early to tell whether this trilogy will happen or not, but I’m pretty sure (not to offend the other teams) that this trilogy must end now, not in the Commissioner’s Cup or even in the Governor’s Cup.

The idea of this trilogy came up when Talk N Text star, Jason Castro, said on his interview that Petron managed to slam the grand slam run of his team its because they (Castro, Alapag and Carey) is injured.

Whoa! Is that so? How about Jay Washington? Lordy Tugade? Joseph Yeo? and Rabeh Al-Husseini? Or even Danny Ildefonso? All of them, except Ildefonso, did not play in the Finals because of injuries.

Because of his statement, maybe accidentally or intentionally, ignited the fuel of Petron fans all over the basketball community and can’t wait for another showdown in the Finals to end this endless debate about who’s who in terms of basketball supremacy.

Let us enumerate the possible reasons why this match up becomes a reality for this conference.

Roster Comparison

Of all the ten teams in the PBA, the Boosters and the Texters has all the tools to become a certified champion in terms of roster. From Center up to the Point Guard position all the way to their bench and even their coaching staff, both teams are very competitive.

Boasting for the Texters are 2011 PBA MVP Jimmy Alapag, 2011 Most Improved Player Jason Castro, former PBA Rookies of the Year Ryan Reyes, Larry Fonacier and Rich Alvarez, former PBA MVP Kelly Williams, Ranidel de Ocampo, Ali Peek and Gilas Center Japeth Aguilar.

For the Boosters, they have PBA 2011 Finals MVP Arwind Santos, 2 time MVP Danny Ildefonso, Alex Cabagnot, Cebuano Hotshot Dondon Hontiveros, 2011 PBA Draft 1st pick Noy Baclao, Denok Miranda, Carlos Sharma, Rey Guevarra, Joseph Yeo and top rookie Chris Lutz.

Based on their line ups, it’s all about offense versus defense. TNT is one of the great offensive teams in the PBA averaging more than 100 points per game, on the other hand, PBB is known for their choking defense, allowing their opponents to score 70 points or less per game.

Coaching Philosophy

Coach Chot Reyes, aside from his fashionable get ups during games and his “teleserye” scripts whenever the team loses, is one of the great X’s and O’s in terms of coaching strategy. He firmly believes that once a system is installed within the team and familiarized it, no one can ruin it except for the players itself. We enjoyed his reactions about how their import sucked during the finals and replaced by their original import, how Ali Peek and Kelly Williams “disappeared” in the game, and his press conference that Jason Castro will be out for the series because of injury and yet he appeared in the next game and whooped the Boosters in one game in that series.

Ato Agustin is somehow the opposite of Chot Reyes. His system is patterned on how the players’ rhythm and composure. His signature statement “Go Hard lang Kami”, is very evident especially in the Governor’s Cup. Agustin is also a type of the coach that pays a lot of attention in installing defense to his team.

Great offense versus tight defense, a must see in this trilogy.

Bragging Rights

We all know that in PBA, it’s all about SMC vs. MVP, Ramon S. Ang vs. Manny V. Pangilinan. This trilogy will make a statement about who’s the best in the league, which dynasty will prevail this time.

The bad blood still exists for both teams. Remember the “word war” between Agustin and Reyes, which the former wanted to end the series with a fist fight and calling the latter as one of the “bekimons” in the league because of his fashion statement and not accepting Agustin’s offer?

How about the statement given by “The Blur” Jason Castro that Petron won the Governor’s Cup because of the injuries suffered by the team? To think that Petron’s key players like Husseini, Washington, Yeo and Tugade are also injured.

So this is it! This trilogy must end this Philippine Cup.

PBA 37th Season: POWER RANKINGS

This is it! The long wait is over! This is war!

Today will be the opening tip-off of the 37th season of the first “pay-for-play” basketball league in Asia, the PBA.

With their tagline: “Kampihan Na!”, the fans will surely bet on their favorite teams in their quest for All Filipino Championship. (I don’t think the tagline is related to the banner in the PBA website, where 4 SMC teams and 1 MVP team is featured, or maybe PBA is telling that the both SMC and MVP camp will unite for their quest in the 2014 Olympics)

THE KING

The reigning AFC Champions, Talk N Text Tropang Texters, will try to reclaim their title and aim for another grand slam run this season.

With Jimmy Alapag, Ranidel de Ocampo, and Kelly Williams returning to their line up after their stint in Wuhan, their championship core is still intact. With the latest addition of Japeth Aguilar and the rookie sucker puncher (coined by Yeng Guiao) Pamboy Raymundo, they will add youth, speed and talent to the team.

Who to watch out: Chot Reyes’ drama acts and telenovela dialogues.

THE CHALLENGERS

Petron Blaze Boosters – one of the main reason why TNT didn’t experienced how sweet to win a rare grand slam. Coach Ato Agustin and his seven disciples (most in the league) will again try to sneak in the Finals and reclaim the All Filipino Championship. With Jay Washington and Rabeh Al-Husseini still in the sideline, Arwind Santos, Alex Cabagnot and Danny Ildefonso, will banner the team this season. Re-acquired during the draft, Dondon Hontiveros might be the last missing piece in the PBB line-up after Duncil and Hubalde return to their mother team. With new recruits, defensive stalwarts Chris Lutz and Carlos Sharma, Petron is a more complete team compared last season.

Who to watch out: Rey Guevarra’s explosiveness and Chris Lutz’ tight defense

Alaska Aces – although they are abandoned by Tim Cone for another team, expect them to prove themselves this season. Armed with four rookies, Mac Baracael, Eric Salamat, Julius Pasculado and Ariel Mepana alongside with their old reliables LA Tenorio, Cyrus Baguio, Sonny Thoss and Jay R Reyes, they are still a championship caliber team. They are no push over this season. Joel Banal, their new head coach, will lead the team and promised to bring back the championship glory in the Aces Camp.

Who to watch out: Julius Pasculado and Ariel Mepana
BMEG Llamados – adopting the triangle system which popularized by Tim Cone in the Alaska’s camp for over 22 years, this might be the year of the Llamados. With a new head coach, Tim Cone and new assistants Johnny Abarrientos and Jeffrey Cariaso, BMEG is on a new mission. James Yap will be the cornerstone of their offense with the help of the returning Kerby Raymundo, Marc Pingris, Joe Devance and the rookie guard Marc Barocca.

Who to watch out: James Yap and Kerby Raymundo

Barangay Ginebra Gin Kings – even though Rudy Hatfield left the team (again and again), Jayjay Helterbrand contemplating on retirement, Eric Menk’s injury (as always), and NO PLAYER MOVEMENT/S MADE BY THE SMC COMPARED TO PETRON AND BMEG, no need to worry ka-baranggays because BGK is still capable of whooping some a** every season they played here in the PBA.

With the lone addition of Riel Cervantes in their lineup, Mark Caguioa will still lead the team to the promise land. The never say die attitude of this team is very intact and cannot be questioned by others.

Who to watch out: Mark Caguioa’s MVP performance

THE GATE CRASHERS

Rain or Shine Elasto Painters – last season, ROS proved that they are not the league’s whipping boys. They can win games; they can be also threat to the other teams. With the tandem of Gabe Norwood and rookie sensation Paul Lee, expect something different this season. That difference will make every opponent of ROS in deep trouble. And when you see the game face of Yeng Guiao, you are also in deep trouble, dib a Coach Chot?

Who to watch out: Paul Lee and Yeng Guiao (expect fines)

Powerade Tigers – they are the last season’s big time losers, but no longer now. JV Casio and Marcio Lassiter will prove that this is their time. With a lot of improvement in their rosters by acquiring Doug Kramer, Rommel Adducul, Alex Crisano and Josh Vandalingham and holdovers Gary David and Sean Anthony, they might burst the bubble of the opposing teams. They might say “Goodbye Eliminations, Hello Quarters”.

Who to watch out: JV Casio and Alex Crisano’s court antics.

Meralco Bolts – their line up improved a lot with the addition of Jason Ballesteros, Gilbert Bulawan, Mark Macapagal and Chito Lanete. With Sol Mercado, Mark Cardona and Asi Taulava leading the team, they have a lot of reasons to enter the quarters every conference this season.

Who to watch out: Jason Ballesteros

Barako Bulls –Veterans Willie Miller, Danny Seigle, Don Allado, Dorian Pena, Paul Artadi and Wynne Arboleda must drink from the “fountain of youth” in order to give the first championship of this team (formerly Air 21). Always selected as victim by the SMC and MVP group in terms of hoarding their talents, I hope this season, Allein Maliksi and Dylan Ababou won’t be traded at all. They will serve as the future of the team as their veteran teammates guide them in every game. Nothing to ask for, but they might pull a surprise this conference.

Who to watch out: Willie Miller – Danny Seigle tandem

WHIPPING BOYS

Shopinas.com Clickers – aside from Franz Pumaren’s moustache, I don’t see this team will enter the quarters this season. Whoever owns the Shopinas first round pick next year will be happy.

Talk N Text Superstar

One of the exciting part in PBA season opening is the parade of the team along with their muses. During the parade, you will see your favorite players wearing their new uniforms, new design for each team’s jersey, new faces in the other teams, as well as the beautiful and ravishing ladies holding the team’s banner. These ladies represent the team’s good luck charm for the opening of the new season of the PBA.

The likes of Anne Curtis, The Brazilian Girls, Iwa Moto, Ara Mina, Christine Reyes, Diana Meneses, Isabelle Daza and others who never failed to display their beauty and poise in every PBA season opener.

And this Sunday, we will witness again the team’s “good luck charms” when the PBA open its 37th season.

But all of a sudden, a tweet coming from Snow Badua, stating that the Talk N Text will parade the “Superstar” Ms. Nora Aunor as their muse.

Wait a minute!!!

Nora Aunor as TNT’s muse? Well, I’m not a Vilmanian or Sharonian and definitely not a Noranian, but please… this is Philippine Basketball! This is not the proper venue to stage the comeback of Ms. Aunor in showbiz.

They said that it’s MVP’s choice of having the Superstar as their muse, but Mr. MVP, you can guest the Superstar in Willie Revillame’s show anytime of the day for the promotion of her new show in TV5.

Speaking of muse, I would like to congratulate Powerade Tigers for bringing back the glory in selecting their team’s muse, from Pokwang to Vice Ganda and now Ms. Maricar Reyes.

Now I wonder, will Boy Abunda take a leave of absence in “The Buzz” to show support for his idol? Will Kuya Germs be the one hosting the opening ceremonies? Or the Tuesday Group of That’s Entertainment will provide the intermission number?

Welcome Back Ate Guy!

PBA Teams: A Second Look

ALASKA ACES

• Intact roster – no player movements in the Alaska Camp except for drafting significant players in the PBA Draft: Mac Baracael, Julius Pasculado and Eric Salamat.
• New coach, old system – with the departure of Tim Cone, the Aces elevate Joel Banal as their new head coach. Banal said that he will still use the triangle system but he will install new plays for the team.
• Projected First Five: C – Sonny Thoss, PF – Tony dela Cruz, SF – Mac Baracael, SG – Cyrus Baguio, PG – LA Tenorio.
• Dark Horse of the Team: Julius Pasculado

BMEG LLAMADOS

• New Coach, New System – with Tim Cone at the helm, expect that the Llamados will execute the famous triangle system.
• New Players: Marc Barocca, John Ferriols
• Projected First Five: C – Rafi Reavis, PF – Kerby Raymundo, SF – Joe Devance, SG – James Yap, PG – Mac Barocca.
• Dark Horse of the Team: Mac Barocca

BARAKO BULL

• New Coach, Old Players (age factor) – Junel Baculi will handle the team and the team is composed of 90% veterans.
• New Players: Willie Miller, Don Allado, Allein Maliksi, Dylan Ababou, Sunday Salvacion
• Projected First Five: C – Dorian Pena, PF – Don Allado, SF – Danny Seigle, SG – Willie Miller, PG – Wynne Arboleda.
• Dark Horse of the Team: Dylan Ababou

BARANGAY GINEBRA

• New Coaches, Old and Small Players (age /height factor) – Siot and Jong will handle the team. Again, the team is composed of guards and guards.
• New Players: Riel Cervantes, Art dela Cruz (returning asst. coach)
• Projected First Five: C – Eric Menk, PF – Willy Wilson, SF – Ronald Tubid, SG – Mark Caguioa, PG – Jayjay Helterbrand.
• Dark Horse of the Team: John Wilson and Jimbo Aquino

MERALCO BOLTS

• No major player movements except for having four “MARK” in the team – Isip, Cardona, Yee and Macapagal.
• New Players: Mark Macapagal, Mark Yee, Bryan Faundo
• Projected First Five: C – Asi Taulava, PF – Reynel Hugnatan, SF – Nelbert Omolon, SG – Mark Cardona, PG – Sol Mercado.
• Dark Horse of the Team: Mark Macapagal

PETRON BLAZE BOOSTERS

• No major player movements
• New Players: Dondon Hontiveros, Carlos Sharma, Chris Lutz
• Projected First Five: C – Noy Baclao, PF – Arwind Santos, SF – Chris Lutz, SG – Dondon Hontiveros, PG – Alex Cabagnot.
• Dark Horse of the Team: Chris Lutz (Defensive Player of the Year)

POWERADE TIGERS

• New Players, Same Coach (sigh)
• New Players: Doug Kramer, Josh Vandalingham, JV Casio, Marcio Lassiter, Rommel Adducul, Alex Crisano, Kenneth Duremdes (please, you are not Michael Jordan)
• Projected First Five: C – Alex Crisano, PF – Doug Kramer, SF – Marcio Lassiter, SG – Gary David, PG – JV Casio.
• Dark Horse of the Team: Marcio Lassiter

RAIN OR SHINE ELASTO PAINTERS

• Same old but effective lineup!
• New Players: Paul Lee, JR Quinahan,
• Projected First Five: C – Beau Belga, PF – Larry Rodriguez, SF – Gabe Norwood, SG – Ronjay Buenafe, PG – Paul Lee.
• Dark Horse of the Team: Paul Lee (PBA ROY)

SHOPINAS CLICKERS

• New Coach, New Players, New Team, Awful Name.
• New Players: Renren Ritualo, RJ Jazul, Elmer Espiritu, Paolo Hubalde
• Projected First Five: I have no idea!
• Dark Horse of the Team: Franz Pumaren’s bigote (moustache)

TALK N TEXT TROPANG TEXTERS

• Intact Roster
• New Players: Japeth Aguilar
• Projected First Five: C – Japeth Aguilar, PF – Harvey Carey, SF – Kelly Williams, SG – Jared Dillinger, PG – Jimmy Alapag
• Dark Horse of the Team: Jason Castro (PBA MVP)